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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But the current field is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still