Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
