Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Drives Aston Villa's Unlikely Title Charge
A mere two months in the past when the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a sign or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
A reversion to average may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.